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Six Flags Entertainment Corporation/NEW (FUN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 net revenues were $930.39M, diluted EPS was -$0.99, and Adjusted EBITDA was $242.62M; attendance fell 9% YoY to 14.2M, driven by severe weather and a smaller active pass base .
  • Results missed Wall Street consensus: revenue ($930.39M vs $982.04M*), EPS (-$0.99 vs $0.78*), and EBITDA ($242.62M vs $340.31M*) as promotions and mix pressured per-capita spend; management cited weather, value-conscious consumers, and pass-base headwinds as drivers .
  • Full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered to $860–$910M (from $1.08–$1.12B) with a targeted $90M 2H operating cost reduction and exploration of non-core asset sales to deleverage .
  • July normalized weather catalyzed demand: attendance up ~4% in late July, 11.0M guests over the five weeks to Aug. 3; early 2026 pass sales added ~710k units since Q2-end, improving momentum .

Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • July demand inflected positively: “As weather normalized in July demand for our parks has measurably improved... combined attendance was up more than 300,000 visits or 4%” (Zimmerman) .
    • Focus parks showed strong response: Canada’s Wonderland’s “Alpin Fury” drove a 20% attendance lift and >20% Fast Lane sales; season pass sales surged >100k units post-debut .
    • Integration/cost actions on track: ~$120M run-rate merger-related cost synergies by year-end; program to flatten org structure cuts full-time labor >$20M annually .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Severe weather hit peak selling weeks: ~379 of 2,042 Q2 operating days were weather impacted; 49 full-closure days; attendance down 12% in the final six weeks of Q2 .
    • Active pass-base drag: 6.7M at quarter-end (down ~8% YoY), pressuring early-season demand; promotions and mix reduced admissions per-capita .
    • Consensus misses and guidance cut: Q2 revenue/EPS/EBITDA missed Street and FY25 EBITDA lowered to $860–$910M; higher net interest ($92M) and tax provision ($76M) pressured earnings .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025 ActualQ2 2025 Consensus*
Net Revenues ($)$687.31M $202.06M $930.39M $982.04M*
Diluted EPS ($)-$2.76 -$2.20 -$0.99 $0.78*
Adjusted EBITDA ($)$208.97M -$170.79M $242.62M $340.31M*
MarginsQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
EBITDA Margin %*34.28%*-103.81%*27.36%*
Net Income Margin %*9.72%*-108.74%*-10.71%*
Segment RevenuesQ2 2024Q2 2025
In-park admissions revenues ($)$279.31M $485.18M
In-park product revenues ($)$246.99M $401.24M
In-park revenues ($)$526.30M $886.42M
Out-of-park revenues ($)$61.04M $71.91M
Concessionaire remittance ($)-$15.72M -$27.94M
Net revenues ($)$571.62M $930.39M
KPIsQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Attendance (000s)10,694 2,818 14,191
In-park per capita ($)$61.60 $65.40 $62.46
Admissions per capita ($)—$37.72 $34.19
In-park products per capita ($)—$27.68 $28.27
Out-of-park revenues ($)$47.79M $23.92M $71.91M
Operating days878 393 1,993
Active pass base (units)——~6.7M

Bolded highlights:

  • Q2 2025 revenue miss: $930.39M vs $982.04M consensus*
  • Q2 2025 EPS miss: -$0.99 vs $0.78 consensus*
  • Q2 2025 EBITDA miss: $242.62M vs $340.31M consensus*

Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2025$1.08B–$1.12B $860M–$910M Lowered
Attendance assumption2H 2025—Flat YoY, includes loss of ~500k visits (winter events removed) New detail
In-park per capita2H 2025—Down ~3% (promotions/mix) New detail
Operating costs & expenses (ex-COGS, addbacks)2H 2025—Down $90M vs 2H 2024 New target
CapEx ($)FY 2025 / FY 2026$475M–$500M FY25 ~$400M FY26 FY26 reduced
Cash interest ($)FY 2025 / FY 2026~$320M FY25 ~$320–$330M FY26 Slightly higher FY26
Cash taxes ($)FY 2025 / FY 2026~$40M FY25 ~$45M–$50M FY26 Higher FY26
Portfolio optimizationFY 2025—Evaluating sale of excess land (Kings Dominion) and Six Flags America land; more opportunities under review New detail

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Technology stack upgradesIntegration benefits, synergies noted Ticketing platform, reengineered mobile app, and upgraded e-commerce to launch in November Execution progressing; near-term launch catalyst
Macro/value-conscious consumerManagement anticipated cautious consumer; calendar/weather variability Pressure on lower-income consumers; promotions added value without eroding price integrity Value focus increasing; channel/product mix adjustments
Pricing & promotionsYield management, pass strategy Aggressive pricing on premium experiences; selective weekday promotions; admissions per-cap under pressure from mix More dynamic pricing; balancing value vs integrity
Product performance11 new marketable products planned for large parks Largest 15 parks attendance +5% over last four weeks of July; standout ride success at Canada’s Wonderland Investments driving demand where deployed
Portfolio optimizationSynergies achieved; outlook to share at Investor Day Pursuing non-core asset sales; narrowing focus to highest-EBITDA parks Accelerating divestitures; deleveraging priority

Management Commentary

  • “The start of the 2025 season… fell significantly short of our expectations,” with attendance declines driven by “drop in single-day ticket sales… fewer sales of season passes,” and “challenged consumer” amid poor weather (Zimmerman) .
  • “As weather normalized in July demand for our parks has measurably improved… strong performance metrics… demand will continue to accelerate” (Zimmerman) .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA guidance… revised to $860M–$910M… assumes 2H attendance flat YoY… in-park per capita down ~3%… second-half operating costs down ~$90M vs 2024” (Witherow) .
  • Liquidity remained ample: cash ~$107M and total liquidity $540M at Q2-end; CapEx $168M in Q2; FY25 CapEx $475–$500M (FY26 ~$400M) (Witherow) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Macro vs weather: Management emphasized weather as the dominant headwind; noted pressure on lower-income consumers but spending remains solid at established parks (Stifel) .
  • Guidance math and pass-base: Largest headwind was the shortfall in season pass sales in May/June; 2H attendance expected flat after removing winter events (Citi) .
  • Cost savings: Despite incremental closures, targeting ~3% full-year cash operating cost reduction while reinvesting in underperforming parks; 2H cost cuts driven by labor/maintenance efficiencies (Mizuho) .
  • Pricing: Strong pricing power on peak days and premium offerings; careful value positioning for season passes and lower-income segments (Mizuho) .
  • Divestitures: Actively pursuing non-core asset sales to simplify portfolio and deleverage (UBS) .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 vs consensus:

    • Revenue: $930.39M vs $982.04M* → miss
    • EPS: -$0.99 vs $0.78* → miss
    • EBITDA: $242.62M vs $340.31M* → miss
      Management attributed misses to severe weather, lower pass-base, and promotional/mix effects .

  • Trend into Q3 2025: Actual EPS $3.07 vs $2.09* (beat), revenue $1.318B vs $1.333B* (slight miss), and EBITDA $556.07M vs $565.14M* (slight miss), highlighting mixed normalization as weather improved and cost actions took hold .

Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Weather normalization is driving an improving trajectory; monitor attendance and per-capita trends through Halloween/Q4 as the business is back-half weighted .
  • Active pass-base recovery is pivotal; early 2026 sales momentum (+~710k units post-Q2) is a near-term positive for demand and mix .
  • Cost discipline is intensifying; targeted $90M 2H reduction and synergy execution should support margins despite promotional pressures .
  • Portfolio optimization (land sales, possible closures) is a credible deleveraging lever; expect asset monetization updates and potential capital allocation shifts .
  • Technology stack upgrades (ticketing/app/e-commerce) launching November could improve conversion, add-on attachment rates, and data-driven yield management .
  • Near-term stock catalysts: guidance reset and July improvement already in the tape; watch execution on cost cuts, pass-base growth, and asset sales for sentiment inflection .
  • Medium-term thesis: Focus on largest, most profitable parks with consistent investment, optimizing pricing/value and cost structure; underperforming parks require time and targeted capex to realize margin runway .